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Metricsstretch
How would you measure whether Google Maps' traffic predictions are good?
How to approach it
Separate accuracy of the prediction from usefulness to the user. A slightly wrong estimate that still helps someone choose the best route can be fine.
How a strong answer opens
“I'd separate two things: whether the predicted arrival time is accurate, and whether it helps people pick a good route. A slightly wrong estimate can still lead to the right choice.”
Outline of a strong answer
Try answering out loud for a few minutes before you open this.
- Accuracy: predicted versus actual arrival time
- Measure error by trip length, time of day, region
- Usefulness: did users pick faster routes and arrive on time
- Trust: how often users ignore suggestions
- Handle edge cases: accidents, sudden closures
- Pick a headline accuracy metric and a user-trust metric
Where this question usually goes wrong
Reporting only average prediction error, which hides big misses on long trips or at rush hour and says nothing about whether users trust it.
Learn the method
Metric trees: breaking a goal into parts in Module 2, Metrics and execution.
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