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Metricsstretch

Sign-ups for a SaaS free trial doubled overnight. Is that good news?

How to approach it

Treat a sudden spike with the same suspicion as a drop. Check where the sign-ups came from and whether they look like real buyers.

How a strong answer opens

“A sudden spike deserves the same suspicion as a drop. Before celebrating, I'd check whether the data is right and where the new sign-ups came from.”

Outline of a strong answer

Try answering out loud for a few minutes before you open this.

Check data: double counting, tracking bug, definition change
Find the source: one channel, campaign, referrer, or country
Look at quality: activation, email domains, behavior after sign-up
Rule out bots and fraud
If real, ask whether it lasts and whether sales and support can handle it
Decide what to scale and what to block

Where this question usually goes wrong

Calling it good news without checking for tracking bugs, bots or a flood of low-quality sign-ups from one source.

Learn the method

Diagnosing a metric drop in Module 2, Metrics and execution.

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